I. Policy and Industry Situation
1. Policy - driven Green Transformation
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The Chinese government continuously promotes the "Steady Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry", strengthening environmental supervision and low - carbon development. It requires petrochemical enterprises to reduce pollutant emissions and accelerate the application of green technologies (such as bio - based materials and biodegradable plastics).
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In 2025, the "One Certificate, One Product" policy will be fully implemented, prompting small and medium - sized enterprises to withdraw from the market. Leading enterprises enhance their concentration through mergers and acquisitions. For example, leading enterprises like Yangnong Chemical and ADAMA enhance their competitiveness through the "technical + formulation" model.
2.Deepening of Refining - Chemical Integration
l Domestic refining and chemical bases (such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical) are accelerating the upgrade to "oil - to - chemicals". The demand growth rate of naphtha is expected to reach 8.5%. The production capacity growth rates of downstream products such as ethylene and aromatics are faster than that of the raw material side. The production capacity of ABS, a downstream product of styrene, may increase by 43% in 2025.
II. Dynamics of Key Products and Price Trends
1.Significant Differentiation in Bulk Chemicals
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MMA (Methyl Methacrylate): Supported by the demand from the electronics, electrical appliances, and automotive industries, the price of MMA increased by 24% in 2024. In 2025, due to the release of new production capacity (such as the expansion of Wanhua Chemical), the price may correct but remain at a high level.
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Pure Benzene and Ethylene Glycol: In 2024, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene glycol increased by 14% and 12% respectively. In 2025, with the stable demand from downstream polyester (textile) and styrene, the price center may shift slightly downward.
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Petroleum Coke and Fuel Oil: Dragged down by the decline in crude oil prices, the prices of petroleum coke and fuel oil dropped by 25% and 8% respectively in 2024. In 2025, the reduction in refinery maintenance may slightly boost the demand, but overall, they are still under pressure.
2. 2.Worsening Supply - demand Contradiction in Synthetic Materials
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ABS (Acrylonitrile - Butadiene - Styrene Copolymer): In 2025, the production capacity growth rate of ABS exceeds 40%, but the demand growth rate is only 15%. The supply - demand imbalance may lead to a price decline.
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Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP): The demand from the packaging and home appliance industries supports the price of PE. PP benefits from the demand for automotive lightweighting (replacing metals). However, the release of new production capacity (such as the second - phase project of Zhejiang Petrochemical) suppresses the profit margin.
3. 3.Rise of Green and High - performance Materials
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Biodegradable Plastics (PBAT/PBS): Driven by policies, the production capacity of biodegradable plastics may exceed 5 million tons in 2025. However, overcapacity of low - end products needs to be guarded against.
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Carbon Fiber and Polyphenylene Sulfide (PPS): Driven by the demand for lightweighting in new energy vehicles, the market size of carbon fiber and PPS is expected to grow by 20% in 2025.
III. Core Trends in the Global Petrochemical Industry
1 1.Production Capacity Expansion and Regional Differentiation
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Leading Regions: In 2025, the growth of global petrochemical production capacity will be concentrated in three major regions: the Middle East, North America, and Asia (excluding China). Relying on the advantage of low - cost crude oil, the Middle East is accelerating the layout of refining - chemical integration. The shale gas revolution in North America continues to promote the commissioning of ethane cracking projects. Emerging markets in Asia (such as India and Southeast Asia) attract investment due to the growth of domestic demand.
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Comparison with China: The growth rate of China's refining and chemical production capacity has slowed down, turning to the upgrade of high - end chemicals (such as POE elastomers and EVA photovoltaic films) and green technologies. While overseas, the expansion of bulk products is still the main trend.
2.Green Transformation and Circular Economy
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European Policies: The European Union's "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM) will be fully implemented in 2025, imposing a carbon tax on imported petrochemical products, forcing enterprises to adopt bio - based raw materials or carbon capture technologies. For example, BASF invests 2 billion euros in the construction of a blue ammonia project to replace the traditional synthetic ammonia process.
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US Developments: The by - product propane from shale gas promotes the expansion of bio - acrylic acid production capacity. Enterprises such as Dow Chemical are accelerating the development of biodegradable polylactic acid (PLA) films.
IV. Analysis of Terminal Demand Drivers
1.Real Estate and Infrastructure
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In 2025, real estate investment may turn positive (with a growth rate of 4.8%), but the sluggish completion area restricts the demand for post - cycle products such as PVC and glass. Infrastructure investment focuses on "new infrastructure", driving the demand for special chemicals such as epoxy resin (for wind turbine blades).
2.Automotive and New Energy
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The production of new energy vehicles may reach 15 million in 2025, driving the demand for lithium - battery materials (lithium iron phosphate and separators) and lightweight materials (carbon fiber and engineering plastics). The decline of traditional fuel - powered vehicles suppresses the demand for lubricating base oil.
3.Home Appliances and Textiles
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The "trade - in of old home appliances for new ones" policy promotes the demand for polyethylene (for refrigerators) and polypropylene (for washing machines). The green transformation of the textile industry accelerates the demand for environmentally friendly dyes (such as digital printing inks) and recycled polyester.
V. Future Challenges and Opportunities
1.Core Challenges
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Structural Overcapacity: The overcapacity of mid - and low - end products such as ABS and octanol has intensified, leading to fierce price competition.
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Cost Pressure: With the downward oscillation of crude oil prices (the expected WTI price center is $75 - 80 per barrel), refining and chemical enterprises need to optimize raw material procurement and inventory management.
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Trade Frictions: The "carbon tariffs" and anti - dumping investigations by Europe and the United States increase the resistance to exports. It is necessary to expand emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
2 2.Strategic Opportunities
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Digital Transformation: The application of AI and Internet of Things technologies in production optimization (such as intelligent inspection and energy consumption management). Enterprises like Wanhua Chemical have piloted the "digital factory".
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High - end Import Substitution: The localization rate of semiconductor - grade electronic chemicals (photoresists and wet electronic chemicals) is expected to increase from 30% to 50%.
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Circular Economy: The chemical recycling of waste plastics (such as Covestro's polycarbonate depolymerization technology) has received policy support. The market size may exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025.
Summary
This piece analyzes the petrochemical industry. Policy - driven green shifts and "One Certificate, One Product" are altering the landscape, with SMEs exiting and large firms strengthening. Key products show diverse trends: bulk chemicals vary in price, synthetic materials face imbalances, and green/high - performance ones are emerging. Globally, capacity expands in certain regions, and green initiatives progress. Terminal demand from sectors like real estate and automotive impacts the industry. Challenges include overcapacity and trade issues, while opportunities lie in digital transformation and circular economy.
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